EIA forecasts U.S. LNG exports will fall 6% from the first half of 2022 to the second half of the year, following Freeport outage
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 12, 2022
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to average 10.5 billion cubic feet per day during the second half of 2022, which is a 6% decrease from the first half of the year, according to the agency’s July 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). That amount is a 14% decrease in U.S. LNG exports from EIA’s June forecast.
EIA revised its estimates based on an outage at the Freeport LNG facility, which is expected to last until late 2022. Freeport accounts for 17% of U.S. LNG export capacity.
“With less LNG being exported in the second half of the year, more natural gas is likely to stay in the domestic market,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “We expect lower U.S. natural gas prices for the rest of 2022 than we had previously forecast, but lower prices in 2022 led us to reduce our expectations for natural gas production.”
EIA forecasts the U.S. Henry Hub spot price will average $5.97 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the second half of 2022, down 30% from the June forecast. For the last three quarters of 2023, EIA expects natural gas prices will average $4.36/MMBtu, up 14% from the June forecast. EIA also expects that more natural gas will be in storage heading into this winter than it had forecast in June.